President Joe Biden's approval ratings are low. Even his own party's rank-and-file think he's too old for the job and would rather someone else were their nominee for president.
But Biden is not a drag for down-ticket Democrats, who have been overperforming in special elections this year and who have been winning ballot initiative battles. Biden isn't even a drag on himself, as a critical percentage of voters in battleground states say they will vote for him even if they don't approve of him or his job performance.
"It's kind of been a long time coming. Democrats have steadily improved" in their voter share in a wide array of races, says Arizona-based pollster Mike Noble, founder of Noble Predictive Insights. Since the election of former President Donald Trump in 2016 and the judicial upending of guaranteed abortion rights in 2022, Democrats have improved their support among college-educated voters, and "those voters are more apt to vote in elections that have an abysmal turnout," such as special elections, Noble says.
An analysis of 2023 special elections results by the elections website FiveThirtyEight found that Democrats overperformed by an average of 10 percentage points. That means that even when Democrats lost special elections, they did better than the political landscape would indicate, given the partisan breakdown in the district and the electoral history there.
A look at special elections in battleground states underscores that August analysis.
In Pennsylvania, a Democrat won a special election for a state House seat by a 3-1 margin, compared with the party's 2-1 win in the 2022 general election. A state Senate seat in a heavily Republican district stayed in GOP hands in a special election earlier this year, but the victor won by a smaller percentage than the Republican candidate did in November 2022.
In Wisconsin, the GOP won a July special election for a state assembly seat, 54% to 46%. That's a smaller margin than in 2022, when the Republican won the seat with 61% of the vote, compared to 39% for the Democratic candidate.
A special election for a Wisconsin state Senate seat was barely won by the GOP candidate, 50.8% to 49.1%. During the previous election, in 2020, the Republican won far more comfortably, with 54% of the vote, compared to 46% for the Democratic candidate.
In a regularly scheduled election, Democrats scored an upset win for a seat in the state Supreme Court, providing a critical liberal majority on a panel that may decide abortion rights, redistricting and other issues. Democratic Judge Janet Protasiewicz won by more than 11 percentage points in a state where whisper-thin margins are more common.
In New Hampshire, a Democrat won a run-off for a state House seat by more than 11 percentage points, after winning the exact same number of votes as the GOP rival in the 2022 general election.
In Virginia, Democrats flipped a state Senate seat in a January special election. Republicans retained a House of Delegates seat in a special election that month but by a substantially smaller margin than the GOP won the seat in 2021.
Republicans made few inroads in 2023 special elections – the most notable being in Maine, where the party flipped a state House seat in a June special election. Democrats still hold an 81-seat majority in the chamber.
Republicans as well as nonpartisan analysts caution that special elections are not necessarily predictive of regularly scheduled general elections, since special elections tend to bring out only the most motivated voters.
In New Hampshire, for example, the Democratic Party is more organized, better funded and professional in nature, while the GOP relies more on volunteer and grassroots workers, says Scott Spradling, a nonpartisan political analyst in the Granite State. That gives Democrats an advantage in special elections, where a big part of the battle is getting people to show up and vote, he says.
But the trend favoring Democrats is notable because the party's highest ranking member, Biden, is faring poorly in polling on his job performance and overall approval.
"The old-school concern is about the approval rating being underwater," meaning the official has a higher disapproval than approval rating, says Berwood Yost, director of the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College in Pennsylvania. But because voters aren't too happy with politicians in either party – and are far more entrenched in their partisan leanings than in the past – "you can still win and not be above water" in approval ratings, Yost says.
Two things are boosting Democrats, analysts say: abortion politics and Trump himself, who is not only turning off some independent voters but causing schisms in his own party.
Intraparty fights in battleground states (literally, in Michigan, where physical confrontations have occurred between pro-Trump and Trump-skeptical Republican officials) are dividing the party. In Arizona, the internal battle could weaken the GOP nominee next year for a critical Senate seat.
In Georgia, the GOP has two wings: the one dominated by the likes of firebrand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and the one led by politicians like Gov. Brian Kemp, who Thursday quashed the idea of holding a special session to oust Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis to stop her prosecution of Trump.
If Trump is indeed the GOP nominee in 2024, "a lot of people will stay home," says University of Georgia political science professor Scott Ainsworth, giving Biden a chance to win a red state where he prevailed by a very narrow margin in 2020.
Meanwhile, Trump has been motivating not just his devoted base but Democratic voters who might not be crazy about their own likely nominee and don't want another Trump term, Ainsworth says.
"We maybe have entered an era where people don't feel excited about particular presidential nominees. Sometimes, it's the other person's negatives. Biden doesn't always inspire some voters, but by the same token, he doesn't have the heavy baggage that Trump has," Ainsworth says.
Biden is outperforming himself in a number of battleground states – doing better in hypothetical head-to-head matchups against Trump than he is in his own approval ratings.
In Pennsylvania, a Franklin & Marshall poll found, just 3 in 10 voters think Biden is doing an "excellent" or "good" job. But the president would defeat his predecessor Trump 41% to 40%, the survey found.
In Arizona, a plurality of 49% of voters disapprove of Biden, compared to 40% who approve of him, according to an Emerson College poll. But Biden trails Trump by just 1-3 percentage points, depending on whether third-party candidates are included, the poll found.
In Michigan, half of voters disapprove of Biden's job performance, with 43% approving of it, Emerson College found. But in a head-to-head matchup, Biden and Trump are tied, with 44% support each.
In Georgia, a Public Opinion Strategies poll found, 54% of Peach Staters disapprove of Biden and 43% approve of the president. But Biden would beat Trump, 44% to 43%, the survey found. The same polling firm got similar results in Nevada, where 52% of voters disapprove of Biden and 40% approve of him – but prefer Biden as the next president, with 46% supporting the incumbent president for reelection and 43% wanting Trump back, the poll found.
In Wisconsin, the disconnect between approval and support for reelection is especially stark. A Marquette University poll found that while 53% of voters disapprove of Biden's job performance (45% approve of it), they still favor Biden (52%) over Trump (43%) for president in the 2024 election.
A big part of Trump's problem in Wisconsin is Republicans, says Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette poll, noting that Biden has more support in his own party than Trump does among GOPers.
"We think of Trump as having an iron grip on the GOP, but actually he faces a minority of around 30% of Republicans that don't care for him, compared to some 14% of Dems who don't like Biden," Franklin says.
That is playing out in other critical states, Yost says.
"Ultimately, when it comes down to voting for someone, it's not just the person, but the acceptability of his or her opponent," Yost says.
D |
以往10万元级车辆的智驾上限在基础L2能力，零跑将天花板抬升至“看得清、算得动、开得稳”的高阶智驾能力。
正如零跑汽车CEO朱江明所判断，汽车作为耐用消费品，如果不选择高阶智驾车型，未来一至两年内用户将面临显著技术体验落差。A10订单中有过半来自高阶智驾版，可见智驾正成为刚需。
多平台、多价位的产品矩阵，也形成稳定的销量基本盘。零跑旗下C平台累计交付超80万辆，B平台上市一年累计交付超23万辆。
E |
根据规划，零跑今年要新增超500家门店，加快布局下沉市场。随着A10打破智能价格壁垒，下沉市场的需求有望持续被激活。
海外反向输出也有效对冲了国内淡季压力。
F | 一季度，凭借4.09万台的海外出口量，零跑拿下了新势力出海的双料冠军——出口量与出口占比均位居第一。一季度海外销量创历史新高，按年增长442%；海外销量比重达37.1%，意味着一季度零跑每卖出三台车，就有一台卖到了海外。
阶段性领跑，能否转化为持续性领跑？
对于车企而言，单季销量爆发并非新鲜事，阶段性领跑能否转化为持续性领跑，才是判断一个品牌竞争力的所在。
当前车市竞争烈度可从新车发布节奏窥见一斑。
G | 仅2025年，国内上市新车高达1278款，其中全新车型约200款。但日均3.5款新车发布的狂潮背后，是配置内卷和用户决策疲劳。
更重要的是，新车发得再快，也掩盖不了一个现实：车企最终拼的是成本管控和规模化带来的盈利空间。
从这个层面来看，车企能否站稳脚跟，只看两件事：技术能不能重复用，市场能不能找到新增长点。
H |
依靠高通用率的LEAP平台架构，零跑已实现单款产品的快速迭代与成本集约——其LEAP 3.5架构核心零部件通用率达88%。
刚上市的D19作为LEAP 4.0电子架构首款车型，更是把平台化红利再提一档，依托双8797芯片与超大内存，首创舱驾一体超级协同，实现“一个大脑管控全车智能”。
零跑D19系LEAP 4.0电子架构首款车型
不同于行业的“车海战术”，零跑则在新车发布节奏上“做减法”，2025年仅推出B10、B01、Lafa5三款全新车型，2026年3-4月投放A10、D19、Lafa5 Ultra三款新产品。
I |
但这套打法初步获得市场认可：A10首月大定突破4万台，创下品牌订单增速新纪录；D19上市15天大定就破1.5万台。
K | 更高的月交付量将进一步放大这种规模效应。
但完成规模化后，要在品牌上实现真正的跃迁，还需要走出国门。加上国内新能源汽车渗透率已突破60%，增量市场逐渐见顶，全球化布局成为抗周期的必备能力。
零跑将出海的首站放在行业公认的“终极考场”——欧洲。
在汽车文化深厚的意大利，零跑纯电市占率达到33.5%，一季度累计上牌11637台，3月和4月上牌量分别为5513台和4496台，稳居纯电市场销量榜首。在另一传统汽车强国——德国，零跑3月销量达1258辆，同样拿下中国纯电品牌销量第一。
零跑之所以能在欧洲市场取得初步成功，既有经营策略的正确，更在于国产技术被认可：零跑与Stellantis成立合资公司零跑国际，以智能化技术换取Stellantis成熟的销售渠道、本地化生产协同与供应链支持。
零跑意大利米兰门店
最新的合作中，双方把合作版图延伸至产能提升和联合采购上。
L |
这种轻资产合作模式减少了企业投入压力，更能快速覆盖市场。截至一季度末，零跑国际在欧洲、中东、非洲和亚太等超40个国际市场建立了约1000家网点。全年海外出口原定10-15万辆的目标，也有望进一步提升。
零跑与Stellantis的合作，意义远不止销量数字。能在传统汽车强国的腹地，用技术合作实现商业盈利，说明中国品牌已经完整通过了欧洲市场从准入合规、产品定义到渠道服务的全链条大考。
“技术换产能+技术换供应链”的新模式，不仅在逆全球化浪潮中更具韧性，更标志着中国汽车工业从产品输出者，逐步升级为技术与体系输出者。
M |
结语
当传统淡旺季规律正被技术平权与全球化重新定义，零跑提供了一个观察行业新规则的窗口，而非简单的销量故事。
对零跑而言，一季度的意义不是创下销量纪录，而是首次在行业淡季里证明，其增长已经不只是靠单一市场、单一车型、单一周期驱动。
国内交付、海外放量、新品接力与经营改善预期，被串成闭环，比单次销量冲高更有价值。
接下来，零跑真正要回答的，也不再是“还能卖多少”，而是能否把这套增长逻辑持续兑现。
如果二季度这些信号继续成立，零跑被重新定义的，就不只是季度表现，而是它在新能源格局中的层级。
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